Kenya at the crossroads: scenarios for our future

Presents forward looking projections taking into consideration economics, agriculture, the environment, education and health. The scenarios identified are El Nino, a scenario of decline and disintegration as a result of no political or economic reforms which leads to ethnic and regional balkanization of the country. Maendeleo, an economic reform scenario that envisions a technocratic approach. It forecast initial rapid gains but accompanied by severe inequalities and instability, which ultimately succumbs, to the discontent of the excluded. Katiba, a scenario that saw institutional transformation as the key to reform, but which also depicted instability and little economic improvement. It paints a picture of Kenya developing locally responsive and representative institutions but trapping it-self in poverty for several decades. Flying Geese, a scenario that involves simultaneous economic, political and institutional transformation of the country, resulting in inclusive democracy and economic growth. It paints a picture of high productivity, equitable and politically stable society, but through a challenging transition. Flying Geese scenario would also result from the energies and focus of a leadership armed with a clear vision of where Kenya ought to be and what it shall take to get there.