Bayesian demographic estimation and forecasting / by John Bryant and Junni L. Zhang.

chapter 1 Introduction / John Bryant -- part I Demographic Foundations -- chapter 2 Demographic Foundations / John Bryant -- chapter 3 Demographic Individuals / John Bryant -- chapter 4 Demographic Arrays / John Bryant -- chapter 5 Demographic Accounts / John Bryant -- chapter 6 Demographic Data / John Bryant -- part II Bayesian Foundations -- chapter 7 Bayesian Foundations / John Bryant -- chapter 8 Bayesian Model Specification / John Bryant -- chapter 9 Bayesian Inference and Model Checking / John Bryant -- part III Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data -- chapter 10 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data / John Bryant -- chapter 11 Infant Mortality in Sweden / John Bryant -- chapter 12 Life Expectancy in Portugal / John Bryant -- chapter 13 Health Expenditure in the Netherlands / John Bryant -- part IV Inferring Demographic Arrays from Unreliable Data -- chapter 14 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Unreliable Data / John Bryant -- chapter 15 Internal Migration in Iceland / John Bryant -- chapter 16 Fertility in Cambodia / John Bryant -- part V Inferring Demographic Accounts -- chapter 17 Inferring Demographic Accounts / John Bryant -- chapter 18 Population in New Zealand / John Bryant -- chapter 19 Population in china / John Bryant -- chapter 20 Conclusion / John Bryant.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty.The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com.This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future. ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques.